The CFR China marker was flat week on week at $332/mt Friday (as on 13th Jan2017), amid muted demand from methanol-to-olefin plants. Domestic China methanol price fell Yuan130/mt week on week Yuan 2,900/mt Friday. China's Jiangsu Sailboat Polyethylene terephthalaterochemical, also known as Jiangsu Shenghong has shut its MTO plant late last week and expected to restart early February, after the Lunar New Year holidays, pending startup of its downstream ethylene vinyl acetate unit, a company source said Tuesday. "The post-holiday startup timeframe for the EVA plant is the best current estimate, but may delayed, depending on operational considerations," the ,source said added. The MTO plant has capacity to produce 385,000 mt/year of propylene, 315,000 mt/year of ethylene and 100,000mt/year of C4/C5, consuming about 2.4 million mt/year of methanol in the process. Last week, Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy lowered the operating rate of its MTO plant to 80%, due to falling margins, a company source said. As a result, "China methanol demand has been weak leading into the Chinese New Year [holiday season], with plenty of incoming cargo," a trader said Friday. Earlier in November to December, Middle Eastern producers preferentially allocated cargo to China due to surging prices then. As a result, regions such as Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Taiwan have felt the supply pinch this week, industry participants noted. Sellers in each region offered in excess of$360/mt, but end-users and buyers had varying apPolyethylene terephthalateites for cargo, amid tight supply and rising prices.After surging $21/mt from December to $331/mt CFR India last week, prices corrected downwards a bit this week to $327/mt, as traders digested news from China."Not much volumes is coming from Iran this week, but with China chemical prices moving down, we expect [volumes to] improve in the coming week -- so supply looks stable in India," an Indian trader said Friday.
CFR China methanol prices assessed at $332/mt Friday,unchanged week on week,based on tradable indications heard in the $325-$340/mt range.The domestic price fell Yuan 130/mt week on week to Yuan 2,900/mt Friday.CFR Southeast Asia assessed at $351/mt,up $9/mt week on week, with a buying indication heard at $350/mt and selling indications heard at $355-$360/mt.CFR Korea assessed up $14/mt week on week at $356/mt,based on offers heard in the $361-$368/mt range and bids heard at $355/mt. The CFR Taiwan marker was assessed $8/mt higher week on week at $348/mt, with buying and selling ideas heard at$340-$345/mt and offers at $362-$368/mt.The CFR India marker was down $4/mt week on week to $327/mt,based on tradable indications heard at $320-$330/mt,and buying ideas heard at $310/mt.
Supply/demand For 2015, the overall domestic methanol supply in China was at 44m tonnes, while the effective operating rate hovered at 65-70% most of the year.The effective operating capacity was around 65m tonnes in China, and 22m tonnes for Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Oceania combined.China was the largest consumer base in Asia with imports in 2015 of 5.54m tones.Exports decreased significantly in 2015 to just 16,000 tonnes.Overall domestic methanol demand in the key China market was at 48.45 metric tonnes in year 2015. Yearly demand for other northeast Asia regions estimated at around 4.5-5tonnes while demand Southeast Asia was roughly 2.6 metric tonnes.In 2016, the methanol market has witnessed a change in trade flows,largely unseen in the past, with China methanol prices becoming increasingly attractive to producers in the US and South America.In 2015,US methanol capacity surged by 76.5% with addition of around 3.5m tonnes/year of new capacity brought on stream. The first quarter of 2016 saw significant import volume from Europe and the US. Identified March loading material from the US Gulf and South America to Far East/China was 178,000 tonnes.Although the arbitrage window closed shortly after, the methanol market is looking forward to the next window to opened following the start-up of the new MTO facilities in Q4 2016/Q1 2017.
Spot prices in the key China market continue to lead the methanol price trend in the rest of Asian.In China methanol prices trended down after peaking in April 2015 before stabilizing and fluctuating within a narrow range in the second quarter of 2016.On a day-to-day trading basis, import methanol prices in China continue under strong influence from the China domestic prices and futures prices listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE).The futures market provides another trading platform and involves lower costs,with minimum volume at 10 tonnes.In other regions, players have been keeping a close eye on the price trend in the benchmark China market. Prices gaps between regions within Asia narrowed going into 2016, given the changes in trade flow and a more significant role China has been playing in the methanol spot market.
CFR China methanol prices assessed at $332/mt Friday,unchanged week on week,based on tradable indications heard in the $325-$340/mt range.The domestic price fell Yuan 130/mt week on week to Yuan 2,900/mt Friday.CFR Southeast Asia assessed at $351/mt,up $9/mt week on week, with a buying indication heard at $350/mt and selling indications heard at $355-$360/mt.CFR Korea assessed up $14/mt week on week at $356/mt,based on offers heard in the $361-$368/mt range and bids heard at $355/mt. The CFR Taiwan marker was assessed $8/mt higher week on week at $348/mt, with buying and selling ideas heard at$340-$345/mt and offers at $362-$368/mt.The CFR India marker was down $4/mt week on week to $327/mt,based on tradable indications heard at $320-$330/mt,and buying ideas heard at $310/mt.
Supply/demand For 2015, the overall domestic methanol supply in China was at 44m tonnes, while the effective operating rate hovered at 65-70% most of the year.The effective operating capacity was around 65m tonnes in China, and 22m tonnes for Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Oceania combined.China was the largest consumer base in Asia with imports in 2015 of 5.54m tones.Exports decreased significantly in 2015 to just 16,000 tonnes.Overall domestic methanol demand in the key China market was at 48.45 metric tonnes in year 2015. Yearly demand for other northeast Asia regions estimated at around 4.5-5tonnes while demand Southeast Asia was roughly 2.6 metric tonnes.In 2016, the methanol market has witnessed a change in trade flows,largely unseen in the past, with China methanol prices becoming increasingly attractive to producers in the US and South America.In 2015,US methanol capacity surged by 76.5% with addition of around 3.5m tonnes/year of new capacity brought on stream. The first quarter of 2016 saw significant import volume from Europe and the US. Identified March loading material from the US Gulf and South America to Far East/China was 178,000 tonnes.Although the arbitrage window closed shortly after, the methanol market is looking forward to the next window to opened following the start-up of the new MTO facilities in Q4 2016/Q1 2017.
Spot prices in the key China market continue to lead the methanol price trend in the rest of Asian.In China methanol prices trended down after peaking in April 2015 before stabilizing and fluctuating within a narrow range in the second quarter of 2016.On a day-to-day trading basis, import methanol prices in China continue under strong influence from the China domestic prices and futures prices listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE).The futures market provides another trading platform and involves lower costs,with minimum volume at 10 tonnes.In other regions, players have been keeping a close eye on the price trend in the benchmark China market. Prices gaps between regions within Asia narrowed going into 2016, given the changes in trade flow and a more significant role China has been playing in the methanol spot market.
